Chaitanya AwasthiAIR 37 · CSE 2022 · 350 wordsTheir whole copy
Opening
The diplomatic failure and threat exchanges between Russia and the West finally culminated into physical warfare with Russia invading Eastern Ukraine under the banner of liberating it.
CAUSES
Body · points and prose
- Eastward expansion of NATO
- Attempts of economic integration with EU
- Russia's Warm Water Policy (Black sea and Sevastopol)
- Failure of diplomatic channels (Minsk process)
- Separatist movements in East Ukraine
- Security concerns for Russia if buffer state lost.
SINO-RUSSIAN BONHOMIE Following stringent politico-economic sanctions from the West, Russia has tilted towards China as its natural ally given the polarising status quo.
→ Russia seems to be taking after the 'Wolf Warrior' Diplomacy of China, standing its ground against international backlash. → Russia looks for legitimacy in China and has received favourable response. → Like China, Russia is using the energy and economic dependance of West upon it to its advantage - weaponising Supply Chain (eg. Nord stream) → China has actively backed Russia and has opposed various resolutions condemning Russia at international platforms. → Russia's aggressive assertiveness plays well with China's current image.
IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA (1) Russia's proximity to China is a big blow to India's attempts at containing China. (2) The war shifts the international backlash to Russia which hitherto was mounting on China. (3) Russia-China-Pakistan nexus is catastrophic for India's neighbourhood ambitions and security. (4) India is stuck between an all weather friend in Russia and an indispensable partner in US. (5) S-400 deal v. CAATSA considerations (6) India's energy and defence reliance upon Russia.
Close · a quotation
India has repeatedly advocated for a nonviolent peaceful resolution and respect of international law. At the same time India has abstained from voting upon anti-Russian sanctions and continues to engage in economic relations (eg. cheap oil).
India has reiterated that its stance is neither for nor against any nation, but in line with its strategic autonomy and national interests. This diplomatic tightrope is necessary since India can't justify Russia's agression given its implications upon its border issues, nor can it desert its trusted ally Russia.
"War does not determine who is right, only who is left." - Bertrand Russell.