- Why in news
- On 12 August 2026, the Earth Sciences Minister told Lok Sabha that a moderate El Niño is suppressing the 2026 monsoon, leaving rainfall 12% below the LPA as of 2 August.
- What it is
- El Niño is the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, part of the ENSO cycle. It weakens the Walker circulation and usually reduces Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The India Meteorological Department, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, issues the official monsoon forecasts.
- First Stage forecast
- IMD's first long range forecast, issued on 13 April 2026, predicted below-normal rainfall at 92% of the LPA.
- Second Stage forecast
- The forecast was revised to 90% of the LPA, with El Niño conditions expected to develop.
- El Niño onset
- Weak El Niño formed in June 2026 and strengthened to moderate.
- El Niño and monsoon link
- In an El Niño event the Indian summer monsoon is generally weaker than normal, and the event's intensity decides how large the impact is.
- Historical record
- Of 16 El Niño years since 1950, 7 saw below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.
- Timing of the effect
- The inverse relationship between El Niño and rainfall is stronger in the later half of the season, especially September.
- No district risk study
- The Ministry has issued no district-wise El Niño risk assessment or guidelines to States for 2026.
- No 'Super El Nino' category
- Neither the WMO nor IMD officially defines a 'Super El Nino'. The term is informal.
- How strength is classified
- El Nino events are classed as weak, moderate, strong or very strong by the size of sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific.
- 2026 progression
- El Nino was weak in June 2026 and became moderate in July 2026.
- Outlook
- It may reach the very strong category in October–December 2026, but its impact on India depends on coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor.
- Impact-Based Forecasts
- IMD issues Impact-Based Forecasts and risk-based warnings daily, valid for 7 days, for disaster authorities and States.
- Walker circulation
- El Nino weakens the Walker circulation, an east-west atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific.
- Peak of the event
- The ongoing El Niño is expected to peak in winter, from November 2026 to January 2027.
- Thermal stress
- The Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are likely to face thermal stress, most in March-May 2027. This may bleach corals and cause marine heat waves.
- Fisheries impact
- Sardine and mackerel catches may fall as fish migrate or fewer young fish join the stock.
- East and west coast contrast
- The Bay of Bengal will stay rough in the monsoon, raising erosion and flood risk on the east coast. The Arabian Sea and west coast should be calmer.
- Next bulletin
- INCOIS will issue the next specialized bulletin in the second week of July 2026.
- Parent body
- INCOIS is the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Don’t confuse with El Niño vs La Niña: El Niño is warming of the central and eastern Pacific and usually weakens the Indian monsoon. La Niña is cooling and usually favours it.
Don’t confuse with ENSO vs Indian Ocean Dipole: ENSO is a Pacific phenomenon. The IOD is the temperature difference across the Indian Ocean, and a positive IOD can offset El Niño's effect on the monsoon.
Don’t confuse with El Niño vs Indian Ocean Dipole: El Niño is a Pacific phenomenon. The Indian Ocean Dipole is a sea-surface temperature difference across the Indian Ocean; a positive IOD can offset El Niño's effect on the monsoon.
Don’t confuse with El Nino vs La Nina: El Nino is warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and usually weakens the Indian monsoon. La Nina is cooling there and usually favours good monsoon rainfall.
Don’t confuse with El Nino vs Indian Ocean Dipole: El Nino is a Pacific phenomenon. The Indian Ocean Dipole is a temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD can offset El Nino's effect on the monsoon.
Don’t confuse with INCOIS vs IMD: INCOIS gives ocean advisories such as sea state and fishing zones. IMD issues weather and monsoon forecasts.
Environment: Prelims tests bodies, programmes and the law behind them; Mains asks why plans fall short.
Why it matters
- The monsoon drives kharif output, reservoir storage and rural incomes, so El Niño years raise risks to farm output and food prices.
- Accurate early forecasts help the Centre and States plan for drought and crops.
- Monsoon rainfall drives kharif output, reservoir levels and rural incomes, so early forecasts help planning.
- Advance El Niño guidance supports farm, water and food-price management.
- Monsoon rainfall drives kharif output, rural incomes, reservoir levels and food inflation, so early El Nino warnings help planning.
- Early ocean advisories help fishers and ports plan work and cut losses.
- Links El Niño to marine ecosystems, coastal safety and the blue economy, not only rainfall.
Problems
- Rainfall is unevenly spread: the all-India figure hides deficits in 47% of districts.
- Dry spells, low soil moisture and low reservoir levels stress rain-fed crops.
- Not every El Niño year gives a deficient monsoon (7 of 16 since 1950), so forecasts carry uncertainty.
- No district-level risk assessment or State guidelines exist for 2026 El Niño impacts.
- El Nino does not fully decide monsoon outcomes, so forecasts carry uncertainty, as the reply notes.
- Warming seas bleach corals and cut fish catch, hurting coastal livelihoods.
- Advisories must reach small fishers in time and in local languages.
Way forward
- Use sub-divisional IMD alerts for contingency crop planning and water management.
- Promote drought-tolerant crops and efficient irrigation in deficient regions.
- Build district-wise risk and impact assessments linked to IMD and IITM forecasts.
- Link forecasts to crop advisories and dam management for local action.
- Use IMD's impact-based forecasts and advisories for crop planning, water management and drought preparedness in States.
- Strengthen last-mile delivery of ocean advisories to fishing communities.
- Invest in coastal protection and reef monitoring on the east coast.
Put in your answer
El Niño impacts: Implications include prolonged dry spells, localized meteorological drought, lower soil moisture, and stress on rain-fed crops and reservoirs.
El Niño record since 1950: 7 of 16 El Niño years had below-normal monsoon rainfall, showing the link is strong but not certain.
Forecast reply: IMD says El Nino is only one factor among coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions shaping the monsoon.
Coastal impact contrast: Use the east coast versus west coast contrast as an example of how El Niño effects vary regionally.
- 2014Mains GS1 · Q16Whether unusual climatic events are mainly explained by El Niño
- 2014Mains GS3 · Q14NDMA-guided drought preparedness for El Niño and La Niña fallouts
- 2015Mains GS1 · Q18Whether Indian monsoon behaviour changes due to humanised landscapes
- 2010Prelims Q4Normal El Niño vs Modoki: locations and Atlantic hurricane effects
- 2011Prelims Q52How La Niña differs from El Niño, including monsoon effects
- 2017Prelims Q66Correct statements on IOD and El Niño's monsoon impact
UPSC’s own questions that come close to this issue, from our Prelims and Mains banks.
No practice question for this one; the card may still help an answer. Why: A lasting climate topic on file. 2026 figures (12% deficit, 47% districts deficient) change yearly and are unlikely to be tested as facts.
Worth revising until Prelims 2028: most news questions come within two years of the event.