UPSC Mains 2024 · GS I · Q7 · 10 marks · 150 words

What is the concept of a ‘demographic winter’? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate.

हिन्दी में

‘जनसांख्यिकीय शीत (डेमोग्राफिक विन्टर)’ की अवधारणा क्या है? क्या यह दुनिया ऐसी स्थिति की ओर अग्रसर है? विस्तार से बताइए।

Population

How a topper answered the closest question

Toppers wrote this one in a test series: “National Family Health Survey - 5 has revealed that India has achieved replacement level fertility, but challenges related to demography still persist. Analyze these challenges and suggest remedial policy measures to address these challenges.”

Jatin JainAIR 91 · CSE 2022 · 278 wordsTheir whole copy

Opening

NFHS-5 survey concluded that the TFR has reached 2.0 below Replacement level of 2.1 (WHO) and Sex Ratio reached 1033 showing results of Indian population measures.

Body

Indian Successful efforts

  1. Non-Coercive population control measures
  2. Awareness and Behavioural Change (Prerna Strategy, Hum Do-Humare Do)
  3. Targetted Approach → Women Empowerment & Education Ex: Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao, SAMBAL etc
  4. National Population Policy 2020

Challenges related to Demography

  1. Regional variations of TFR leading to newer challenges
Diagram
- India map showing regional TFR variations: - Northern/Central regions shaded: 2.3-3.2 - Western/Central regions shaded: 2.2-2.4 - Southern/South-western regions shaded: 1.7-1.9 - Eastern region shaded: 1.9-2.1 - Fig: TFR

  1. Reduction in population would lead to high dependency ratio ← Elderly population percentage would increase Eg: expected to reach 21% by 2035 (China, Japan → high dependency)

  2. Low skill and employability ↳ India Skill Report 2021 → only 42% people are employable in India

  3. Poverty and illiteracy → low life chances, less productivity and creates vicous cycle

  4. Health burden - especially women (65% of out of pocket expenditure)

    • 52% women anaemic
    • IMR = 28 MMR = 112

  5. Jobless growth and burden of global factors like Covid, Climate Change → Unemployment

Remedial policy measures

  1. Regional Disparity → 15th Finance Commission included incentives based on population control
  2. Education → National Education Policy 2020 ↳ Vocational training, technical university
  3. Skilling, Reskilling and Upskilling (WEF) Eg: PMKVY ↳ Skill mapping
  4. Enhancing health infrastructure and expenditure Eg: Delhi → Mohalla clinics, PM-JAY etc
  5. Employment opportunities → Time bound employment to 2 lakh jobs Eg: Agnipath Scheme, Startup India etc
  6. Promotion of profitable agriculture and industrial development

Close

Eg: Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat

India needs to make broad steps to overcome the challenges and avoid Demographic Dividend turning into Demographic Disaster

How toppers approach this question, and more on its topic: open the question.

Toppers’ answers to other close questions

Source: UPSC, Civil Services (Main) Examination 2024, General Studies Paper I, Q7. The paper on upsc.gov.in. Themes and links to toppers’ answers are by UPSC Grade, not by UPSC.