- Why in news
- On 5 June 2026, MoSPI released Provisional Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 and Q4 estimates, the first under the new base year 2022-23 series. Real GDP grew 7.7% in 2025-26 and 7.8% in Q4.
- What it is
- GDP estimates are compiled by MoSPI's National Statistics Office. The new series moves the base year to 2022-23 and replaces the earlier 2011-12 base. Real GDP is measured at constant prices, and nominal GDP at current prices.
- Real GDP growth 2025-26
- Real GDP is estimated to have grown 7.7% in 2025-26, against 7.1% in 2024-25.
- Nominal GDP growth
- Nominal GDP is estimated at ₹346.36 lakh crore, a growth of 8.9%.
- GVA growth
- Real GVA grew 7.9% in 2025-26, against 7.3% in 2024-25.
- Methodology
- Provisional Estimates use the Benchmark-Indicator method, extrapolating the previous year's estimates using indicators.
- Quarterly guidelines
- The new quarterly GDP estimates broadly follow the IMF's Quarterly National Accounts Manual, 2017.
- Next release
- Q1 2026-27 estimates are due on 31 August 2026, with revised IIP and WPI/PPI series on base 2022-23.
Don’t confuse with GDP vs GVA: GVA measures output by producers at basic prices; GDP adds net product taxes.
Don’t confuse with Advance vs Provisional Estimates: Advance Estimates use data up to Q3; Provisional Estimates add Q4 data.
Economy terms and data: 42 Prelims questions since 2013, rising in recent years; they test what a term or instrument means. In Mains, 12 news-triggered questions.
Why it matters
- The new base year captures current economic structure and improves policy and fiscal planning.
Problems
- Provisional figures are revised later, and revised IIP and WPI/PPI series are yet to be incorporated.
Way forward
- Publish detailed Sources and Methods and strengthen data sources to improve reliability.
- 2021Mains GS3 · Q1Explain differences in India's GDP computation methodology before and after 2015.
- 2013Mains ESSAY · Q3Assess whether GDP along with GDH suits judging national well-being.
- 2020Mains GS3 · Q2Define potential GDP, explain its determinants, and factors inhibiting India's potential.
- 1997Prelims Q99National Income is which aggregate: NNP or NDP at market price or factor cost?
- 2001Prelims Q19Which GNP-based formula defines National Income correctly?
- 2013Prelims Q99National income equals which measure: goods produced, expenditure, personal income, or final goods value?
UPSC’s own questions that come close to this issue, from our Prelims and Mains banks.
Prelims practice · Statement I and II
Ours, not from a UPSC paper
Consider the following two statements about India's new series of GDP estimates with base year 2022-23:
- Statement-I: In the Provisional Estimates for 2025-26, nominal GDP growth is estimated to be higher than real GDP growth.
- Statement-II: Real GDP is measured at current prices, while nominal GDP is measured at constant prices.
Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?
True or false?
1 of 7
Statements the way Prelims prints them. Say first, then see the fact.
1.The new series of GDP estimates uses 2022-23 as the base year.
True. The new series has base year 2022-23, released on 27 February 2026.
2.Real GDP growth for 2025-26 is estimated at 7.7%.
True. 7.7% against 7.1% in 2024-25.
3.Real GDP is GDP measured at current prices, while nominal GDP is measured at constant prices.
False. Real GDP is at constant prices; nominal GDP is at current prices.
4.The Provisional Estimates are compiled using the Benchmark-Indicator methodology.
True. Previous year's estimates are extrapolated using relevant indicators.
5.The new quarterly GDP estimates broadly follow the World Bank's national accounts manual.
False. They follow the IMF's Quarterly National Accounts Manual, 2017.
6.Gross Value Added equals GDP plus product taxes minus product subsidies.
False. GDP equals GVA plus product taxes minus product subsidies.
7.Nominal GDP growth in 2025-26 is estimated to be lower than real GDP growth.
False. Nominal GDP grew 8.9%, higher than real growth of 7.7%.
Written by us from the release, not by UPSC; checked by a second model.
Worth revising until Prelims 2028: most news questions come within two years of the event.