- Why in news
- The Economic Survey 2025-26 was released on 30 January 2026. It projects 7.4% real GDP growth for FY26 and 6.8-7.2% for FY27.
- What it is
- The Economic Survey is the Finance Ministry's annual review of the economy, tabled in Parliament before the Union Budget. It reviews growth, prices, trade, fiscal and financial trends and sets out policy views. It is not binding on the government.
- FY26 growth estimate
- First Advance Estimates put real GDP growth at 7.4% and GVA growth at 7.3% in FY26.
- Inflation
- Average headline CPI inflation for April-December 2025 was 1.7%, the lowest since the CPI series began.
- Eight Core Industries
- The index covers coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity, and has 40.27% weight in the IIP.
- Monetary policy
- The MPC cut the repo rate by 100 basis points between April and December 2025, to 5.25%.
- Forex reserves
- Reserves were USD 701.4 billion on 16 January 2026, about 11 months of import cover.
Don’t confuse with Economic Survey vs Union Budget: The Survey reviews the past year's economy and is not binding. The Budget gives the government's receipts and spending plans for the coming year.
Don’t confuse with Repo rate vs CRR: Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to banks. CRR is the share of deposits banks must keep with the RBI.
Reports and indices: 14 Prelims questions since 2013; they test who publishes a report and what it measures.
Why it matters
- Gives an official picture of growth, inflation, jobs, trade and finances before the Budget.
- Signals the policy direction, such as manufacturing, services exports and capital spending.
Problems
- Global uncertainty and tariff risks could weigh on exports.
- States' combined fiscal deficit rose to 3.2% of GDP in FY25, showing pressure on State finances.
- Very low inflation may reflect food and fuel price falls that can reverse.
Way forward
- Sustain capital expenditure and support States' capital spending.
- Diversify exports and deepen services and manufacturing growth.
- Broaden formal jobs and financial inclusion, especially for women.
Put in your answer
Direct tax base: Income tax return filings rose from 6.9 crore in FY22 to 9.2 crore in FY25.
Capital expenditure: Effective capital expenditure rose to 4% of GDP in FY25 from 2.7% pre-pandemic.
- 2019Mains GS3 · Q2Agree that steady GDP growth and low inflation left economy in good shape?
- 1998Prelims Q97Which ministry officially publishes the Economic Survey every year?
- 2001Prelims Q89Match publishers with publications, including Economic Survey's publisher
UPSC’s own questions that come close to this issue, from our Prelims and Mains banks.
Prelims practice · Single answer
Ours, not from a UPSC paper
Consider the following statements about the Economic Survey 2025-26 and the indicators it reports: 1. The Index of Eight Core Industries covers coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity. 2. The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Inclusion Index is built on 97 indicators across three dimensions: access, usage and quality. 3. The Survey reports that the RBI cut the cash reserve ratio by 100 basis points to 4.0% during 2025. 4. The Survey reports that India's Global Innovation Index rank fell from 38th in 2019 to 66th in 2025. How many of the statements given above are correct?
How many of the statements given above are correct?
True or false?
1 of 4
Statements the way Prelims prints them. Say first, then see the fact.
1.The Index of Eight Core Industries includes cement and fertilizers but excludes electricity.
False. Electricity is one of the eight core industries, along with coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel and cement.
2.RBI's Financial Inclusion Index is built on 97 indicators grouped into three sub-indices: access, usage and quality.
True. It has 97 indicators and three dimensions: access, usage and quality.
3.The Survey states that the PLI schemes across 14 sectors have attracted over ₹2.0 lakh crore of actual investment as of September 2025.
True. PLI schemes in 14 sectors drew over ₹2.0 lakh crore of investment and 12.6 lakh jobs.
4.The Survey says India's Global Innovation Index rank improved to 66th in 2025 from 38th in 2019.
False. The rank improved to 38th in 2025 from 66th in 2019.
Written by us from the release, not by UPSC; checked by a second model.
Mains practice
15 marks · 250 words
The Economic Survey 2025-26 projects 7.4% real GDP growth for FY26 and 6.8-7.2% for FY27, with average CPI inflation of only 1.7% in April-December 2025. Examine what these trends mean for India's macroeconomic stability, and discuss the risks to sustaining growth that the Survey's picture may understate.
Worth revising until Prelims 2027: most news questions come within two years of the event.